Latest insights

Trump’s tariff letters do not signal trade war escalation

8 Jul 2025

The Trump administration has sent formal trade demand letters to 14 economies with new tariff rates, but it has also allowed more time for additional negotiations. With the move well telegraphed and the tariffs similar to levels announced three months ago, we expect more deals to emerge in the coming weeks.

Read the report

Who could win and lose on tighter Trump AI controls

7 Jul 2025

New US export controls could reportedly target AI chips headed to Southeast Asia. We are more sanguine, but think investors should stay diversified within AI and tech, and consider structured strategies to manage exposure.

Read the report
Container ship

The end of the “reciprocal” tariff pause

3 Jul 2025

We provide an update on our outlook for US tariffs as the “reciprocal” tariff pause comes to an end and ahead of expected sectoral and product tariff announcements.

Read the report

Republicans pass the OBBB

3 Jul 2025

President Trump secured his signature economic policy legislation by the thinnest of margins, making permanent many of the lower tax rates he and his party introduced in 2017 alongside a range of new tax and spending cuts.

Read the report

Markets await more trade news after US-Vietnam deal

3 Jul 2025

President Trump announced on Wednesday that the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. We take the US-Vietnam accord as a positive step toward more durable bilateral deals for the US and toward greater clarity for investors.

Read the report

Key questions

Has the worst of the tariff threat passed?

8 Jul 2025

Market confidence in improving global trade relations was undermined this week, after President Trump renewed his threat of elevated tariffs on a host of top trading partners, including Japan and South Korea. The move was consistent with our view that the US will continue to deploy forceful negotiating tactics, adding to market volatility. But we still expect the White House to stop short of measures that risk rekindling sustained inflation or undermining markets. Against this backdrop, we favor phasing into equities.

Investment view

We think investors can use periods of volatility or pullbacks to gradually add to US equities or balanced portfolios. Phasing into the market can be an effective way to position for medium- and longer-term upside while managing timing risks. Capital preservation strategies can be another approach to help manage near-term downside.

What does Trump's fiscal deal mean for markets?

7 Jul 2025

President Trump's signature fiscal package has been approved by lawmakers, including tax cuts and reductions in social spending. This despite worries within Trump's Republican Party over the potential boost to government debt, which independent sources estimate at around USD 4 trillion over the coming decade. Such concerns caused a sell-off in government bond yields in May, when the bill passed the House of Representatives. But market sentiment has improved, and we continue to see the 10-year yield falling further this year.

Investment view

High grade and investment grade bonds offer attractive risk-reward, in our view, and can help hedge against downturns. We prefer medium-duration bonds due to fiscal risks at the long end. Higher yields and wider credit spreads have improved the outlook for riskier credit; for now, we prefer diversified income strategies, including private credit, equity income, and higher-quality credit.

New in recent weeks

7 Jul 2025

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that several big trade agreements are close while others remain elusive, adding that some will have an option of a three-week extension before levies kick in on 1 August.

7 Jul 2025

On Thursday, 3 July, House Republicans narrowly approved the Senate’s version of US President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy package, the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), by a 218-214 vote. Every Democrat and two Republicans opposed the measure.

30 Jun 2025

Japan and India extended their trade negotiators’ stays in Washington as they continue to work toward separate tariff deals with the US. Tokyo’s point person, Ryosei Akazawa, reportedly spoke to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick twice over the weekend. Trump said he doesn’t think he will need to extend the deadline, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested deals might not be finished in time.

Livestreams

Trade update: US-China tariff reductions

CIO Live | Watch the replay of the special edition livestream

13 May 2025

Signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China are lifting global equity markets, following news that both countries have agreed to a 90-day reduction in tariffs. This positive momentum is further supported by last week’s announcement of a new US-UK trade deal framework. While significant challenges remain in securing a lasting US-China agreement—which could contribute to ongoing market volatility—we see attractive opportunities for investors willing to look beyond short-term fluctuations and invest selectively.

To help you navigate these shifting dynamics, CIO held a special edition global livestream with Nadia Lovell, Senior Equity Strategist; Dominic Schnider, Head CIO for Global FX and Commodities; and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist, hosted by Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist. In this edition, our experts broke down the latest tariff developments, assessed their impact on markets, and provided actionable strategies for investors.

100 days in: Trump 2.0, tariffs, and the road ahead

100 days in: Trump 2.0, tariffs, and the road ahead

1 May 2025

With ongoing policy shifts driving market volatility, Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, hosted a special May edition of our House View monthly livestream to discuss topics from the administration's first 100 days and what we can expect going forward. Watch the replay.

Agenda

US trade policy: What’s next from Washington?

Douglas Irwin, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College and author of Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy

Geopolitical impact: A world in transition

Admiral James Stavridis, Vice Chair of Global Affairs at The Carlyle Group and former 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO

How to invest: CIO’s macro and market views

Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, CIO Americas

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Special edition livestream: Trade wars

04 Apr 2025

We hosted a special edition livestream to discuss the latest developments on the trade war as the markets continued to digest the effects of tariffs on the US economy. Featured were Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, CIO Americas and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, CIO Americas.

Special edition livestream: Tariffs, volatility, and your portfolio

03 Apr 2025

We hosted a special edition of our monthly House View livestream, focused on the latest tariff announcements and the market impact. The conversation featured Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas; Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas; David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities; and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Americas.

Get in touch

Together, we can help you pursue what’s important

Are you a client?

Become a UBS client

Disclaimer

Global asset class preferences definitions

The asset class preferences provide high-level guidance to make investment decisions. The preferences reflect the collective judgement of the members of the House View meeting, primarily based on assessments of expected total returns on liquid, commonly known stock indexes, House View scenarios, and analyst convictions over the next 12 months. Note that the tactical asset allocation (TAA) positioning of our different investment strategies may differ from these views due to factors including portfolio construction, concentration, and borrowing constraints.

Most attractive – We consider this asset class to be among the most attractive. Investors should seek opportunities to add exposure.

Attractive – We consider this asset class to be attractive. Consider opportunities in this asset class.

Neutral – We do not expect outsized returns or losses. Hold longer-term exposure.

Unattractive – We consider this asset class to be unattractive. Consider alternative opportunities.

Least attractive – We consider this asset class to be among the least attractive. Seek more favorable alternative opportunities.

Note: For equities, we have collapsed “Most Attractive” with “Attractive” and “Least Attractive” with “Unattractive” from the five-tier rating system that is found in the Equity Compass into three tiers.

Nontraditional asset classes are alternative investments that include hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and managed futures (collectively, alternative investments). Interests of alternative investment funds are sold only to qualified investors, and only by means of offering documents that include information about the risks, performance and expenses of alternative investment funds, and which clients are urged to read carefully before subscribing and retain. An investment in an alternative investment fund is speculative and involves significant risks. Specifically, these investments (1) are not mutual funds and are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; (2) may have performance that is volatile, and investors may lose all or a substantial amount of their investment; (3) may engage in leverage and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; (4) are long-term, illiquid investments; there is generally no secondary market for the interests of a fund, and none is expected to develop; (5) interests of alternative investment funds typically will be illiquid and subject to restrictions on transfer; (6) may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; (7) generally involve complex tax strategies and there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors; (8) are subject to high fees, including management fees and other fees and expenses, all of which will reduce profits.

Interests in alternative investment funds are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed or endorsed by, any bank or other insured depository institution, and are not federally insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. Prospective investors should understand these risks and have the financial ability and willingness to accept them for an extended period of time before making an investment in an alternative investment fund, and should consider an alternative investment fund as a supplement to an overall investment program.

In addition to the risks that apply to alternative investments generally, the following are additional risks related to an investment in these strategies:

  • Hedge Fund Risk: There are risks specifically associated with investing in hedge funds, which may include risks associated with investing in short sales, options, small-cap stocks, “junk bonds,” derivatives, distressed securities, non-US securities and illiquid investments.
  • Managed Futures: There are risks specifically associated with investing in managed futures programs. For example, not all managers focus on all strategies at all times, and managed futures strategies may have material directional elements.
  • Real Estate: There are risks specifically associated with investing in real estate products and real estate investment trusts. They involve risks associated with debt, adverse changes in general economic or local market conditions, changes in governmental, tax, real estate and zoning laws or regulations, risks associated with capital calls and, for some real estate products, the risks associated with the ability to qualify for favorable treatment under the federal tax laws.
  • Private Equity: There are risks specifically associated with investing in private equity. Capital calls can be made on short notice, and the failure to meet capital calls can result in significant adverse consequences including, but not limited to, a total loss of investment.
  • Foreign Exchange/Currency Risk: Investors in securities of issuers located outside of the United States should be aware that even for securities denominated in US dollars, changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the issuer’s “home” currency can have unexpected effects on the market value and liquidity of those securities. Those securities may also be affected by other risks (such as political, economic or regulatory changes) that may not be readily known to a US investor.
CIO research disclaimer